Long Ball: Trying to Predict the 2008 Derby

If there’s anything true about baseball analysts everywhere, or sports analysts as a whole, it’s that predicting isn’t exactly their forte.  So it made complete sense for us at the ADD Show to try and predict the 2008 State Farm Home Run Derby (Monday, 8pm). First though, let’s break down the derby participants…

LANCE BERKMAN

The Big Puma is swinging a hot bat so far in 2008, including a .347 average

MLB Service: 10th season

Bats: Switch

Age: 32

2008 Home Runs: 22

Career Home Runs: 281

Past Derby Experience: 2002, 2004 (runner-up), 2006

Lance Berkman is a switch hitter, but he’ll be a hell of a lot better off hitting from the left side. The porch at Yankee Stadium down the right field line is close to that of a little league stadium. Lefties sure have an advantage this year, and Lance has shown he certainly produce.

RYAN BRAUN

The young slugger was called up midway during 2007 and hasn't looked back

MLB Service: 2nd season

Bats: Right

Age: 24

2008 Home Runs: 23

Career Home Runs: 57

Past Derby Experience: None

Braun is one of those rare “I hit home runs and also can…hit, as well” players. His clip this year is .290 and is a lifetime .308 hitter. He’s consistant and has become the hammer in the powerful Brewers lineup already at such a young age. He has a sweet swing and the jitters shouldn’t effect him in his first derby; nothing else has.

DAN UGGLA

The 28-year old is just one slugger on the Marlins that has led to their surprising 2008 success

MLB Service: 3rd season

Bats: Right

Age: 28

2008 Home Runs: 23

Career Home Runs: 81

Past Derby Experience: None

Here’s another guy that has gotten out to a very fast start to his MLB career. This is his third year in the league and his first two years he’s hit 27 and 31 long balls in consecutive years. Also, keep in mind this guy is at second: not exactly a position known for power. But make no mistake, this kid knows how to hit…a lot.

CHASE UTLEY

Can Chase Utley be the 3rd different Phillie to win the NL MVP in a row? His numbers point to yes

MLB Service: 6th season

Bats: Left

Age: 29

2008 Home Runs: 25

Career Home Runs: 122

Past Derby Experience: None

Utley might be the one guy in this field of sluggers that doesn’t quite fit in. His swing, not so sweet, not a home run hitters swing at all. He isn’t big by any stretch, but despite all that, he’s hit the ball out 25 times this year, 3rd in the NL. That short compact swing is serving him well as he generates unbelievable power with a quick turn of the hips.

JOSH HAMILTON

Everyone knows his incredible story, now they know his incredible power

MLB Service: 2nd season

Bats: Left

Age: 27

2008 Home Runs: 21

Career Home Runs: 40

Past Derby Experience: None

You can’t tell it all in one sentence but here goes: Hamilton was a rising star, fought drug and alcohol addiction, found God, and is now a force at the plate. The guy had a year worthy of a Hollywood (or Lifetime I guess?) feel-good story last year: hitting .292 with 19 bombs and 47 RBIs. Traded to Texas (a trade that worked out on both sides), the comeback kid already has eclipsed his numbers from last year and will likely be the first player to reach 100 RBI this year.

EVAN LONGORIA

The rookie sensation down in Tampa has helped the Rays shock the baseball world thus far in the 2008 season

MLB Service: Rookie

Bats: Right

Age: 22

2008 Home Runs: 16

Career Home Runs: 16

Past Derby Experience: None

Longoria is one of a handful of young Rays that have helped Tampa turn their organization around. His average isn’t remarkable: .275. Neither is his home run total: 16. But when this crafty third baseman gets on a hot streak, look out, because he’ll hit it into the bleachers with ease.

JUSTIN MORNEAU

Want to know why the Twins are shockingly right on the heels of the first place White Sox? There is no more reason than Morneau.

MLB Service: 6th season

Bats: Left

Age: 27

2008 Home Runs: 14

Career Home Runs: 124

Past Derby Experience: 2007

Like Utley, his average is up there (.323 this year) and you wouldn’t think this guy would be in the derby in the first place. He comes in with the lowest home run total this year at just 14, but he has been here before: in the 2007 derby he hit 4 home runs, and lost to Albert Pujols 2-1 in a swing-off, failing to advance to the second round.

GRADY SIZEMORE

Boy are the last place Indians glad to have Sizemore, one bright star on a slumping team.

MLB Service: 5th season

Bats: Left

Age: 25

2008 Home Runs: 23

Career Home Runs: 101

Past Derby Experience: None

The last 3 seasons Sizemore has launched 22, 28, and 24 home runs consecutively: not too shabby. He’s on pace to easily set a career high in dingers by as early as the end of July. He’s also the AL leader in long balls this season with 23 of them, and has made turning Jacobs Field/Progressive Field to batting practice a habit.

PREDICTIONS:

Aaron: As a self-proclaimed Phils fan I’ll be rooting for Chase Utley without a doubt, but he’s got a much better chance at NL MVP than Home Run Derby champion. I also don’t believe that guys who aren’t natural power hitters have much of a shot: that eliminates Longoria, Morneau, Utley (as mentioned), and Sizemore. The porch at Yankee Stadium in right is short, giving a nice advantage to lefties, so I like the lefties. The last 2 champions have been Vlad Guerrero and Ryan Howard: big swingers that are comfortable on the big stage. A lefty who’s comfortable on the big state? Lance Berkman. Not only could he bat left handed but he’s been a derby participant 3 times. He was a runner-up in 2004, launching 21 balls out of the yard. The Big Puma has come close and he has what it takes, he won’t be wide eyed, even at Yankee Stadium. Count on the Astros slugger to win.

Dave: A first-timer to the derby, Grady Sizemore could make waves at the slug-fest. Sizemore is used to pressure, taking the otherwise anemic Cleveland offense on his shoulders. He has also hit a pair of home runs in 11 career post-season games. Like Aaron, I think the Yankee stadium field will play to the advantage of lefties like Sizemore. Sizemore is a young (26) slugger who in years to come will become one of the names associated with home runs, like we now associate Ryan Howard, Jim Thome, and Lance Berkman with the long ball. This could be the event that puts Sizemore in the same company as the aforementioned sluggers.

photos from mlb.com